LightCounting sees optical component and module growth shrinking to 4% in 2023
The good news, according to LightCounting, is that optical component and module sales should grow 14% this year, despite supply chain issues and macroeconomic uncertainty. The bad news is that the space won’t be as resilient to such factors in 2023, with the market research firm now pegging optics revenues to climb only 4% in 2023.
The comparative weakness in 2023 won’t last long, however, as LightCounting predicts in a new research report that a 11% CAGR in the 2022-2027 timeframe. That figure is down slightly from the 13% forecasted in a similar report LightCounting issued at this time last year.
Despite the more cautious outlook for 2023, LightCounting asserts that demand for optics remains strong across the board. However, several supply chain constraints will continue to place a drag on the market, as will the softness in the global economy. The market research firm reports that Meta has reduced its buying forecast substantially for 2023 and LightCounting believes Amazon and other cloud companies may do the same if economic headwinds reduce their advertising, streaming, and retail incomes.
Still growth is growth, which LightCounting predicts will be led by DWDM and Ethernet optics (see chart above). Optical interconnect sales, mostly active optical cables (AOCs), also will be strong enough to create double-digit increases over the next 5 years. PON optics sales will remain steady, as a tailing off of deployments in China will offset broadband infrastructure roll outs and evolution toward 10G PON in North America and Europe.
The updated forecast comes shortly after LightCounting also reduced its predictions for Ethernet optics (see “LightCounting shrinks Ethernet optics forecast”).
For related articles, visit the Business Topic Center.
For more information on optical components and suppliers, visit the Lightwave Buyer’s Guide.
To stay abreast of optical communications technology, subscribe to Lightwave’s Enabling Technologies Newsletter.
Stephen Hardy | Editorial Director and Associate Publisher, Lightwave
Stephen Hardy is editorial director and associate publisher of Lightwave and Broadband Technology Report, part of the Lighting & Technology Group at Endeavor Business Media. Stephen is responsible for establishing and executing editorial strategy across the both brands’ websites, email newsletters, events, and other information products. He has covered the fiber-optics space for more than 20 years, and communications and technology for more than 35 years. During his tenure, Lightwave has received awards from Folio: and the American Society of Business Press Editors (ASBPE) for editorial excellence. Prior to joining Lightwave in 1997, Stephen worked for Telecommunications magazine and the Journal of Electronic Defense.
Stephen has moderated panels at numerous events, including the Optica Executive Forum, ECOC, and SCTE Cable-Tec Expo. He also is program director for the Lightwave Innovation Reviews and the Diamond Technology Reviews.
He has written numerous articles in all aspects of optical communications and fiber-optic networks, including fiber to the home (FTTH), PON, optical components, DWDM, fiber cables, packet optical transport, optical transceivers, lasers, fiber optic testing, and more.
You can connect with Stephen on LinkedIn as well as Twitter.