Dell’Oro Group is predicting strong growth for DWDM equipment sales through 2026 – so strong that even a recession might not stop the market’s momentum. Long-haul systems will fare better than metro platforms, the market research firm states in its latest Optical Transport 5-Year Forecast Report.
The company’s optical network hardware analyst expects optical transport DWDM equipment sales to exceed $17 billion by 2026. Capacity shipments will increase at an average annual rate of more than 30%, while spectral efficiency is tabbed to improve at a 9% average annual rate.
“Although there is a ton of market turbulence, we do not see demand for DWDM equipment letting up,” commented Jimmy Yu, vice president at Dell’Oro Group. “In fact, the biggest issue is that demand seems to be growing faster than supply. Hence, even if a mild recession were to occur, we think the worst-case scenario is that demand will align with supply sooner.
“Hence, we are projecting continuous growth for DWDM system revenues. The only difference over the next five years, compared to previous years, is that we are expecting more growth from DWDM long haul since IPoDWDM should lower the use of WDM Metro systems in data center interconnect,” Yu added.
DWDM long haul systems should see revenues increase at a five-year compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5%, better than the 3% forecasted for WDM metro gear.
Dell’Oro’s Optical Transport 5-Year Forecast Report offers an overview of the optical transport industry with tables covering manufacturers’ revenue, average selling prices, unit shipments, and wavelength shipments (by speed up to 1.2+ Tbps). The report tracks DWDM long haul, WDM metro, multiservice multiplexers, optical switches, disaggregated WDM, data center interconnect (DCI), and ZR optics.
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Stephen Hardy | Editorial Director and Associate Publisher, Lightwave
Stephen Hardy is editorial director and associate publisher of Lightwave and Broadband Technology Report, part of the Lighting & Technology Group at Endeavor Business Media. Stephen is responsible for establishing and executing editorial strategy across the both brands’ websites, email newsletters, events, and other information products. He has covered the fiber-optics space for more than 20 years, and communications and technology for more than 35 years. During his tenure, Lightwave has received awards from Folio: and the American Society of Business Press Editors (ASBPE) for editorial excellence. Prior to joining Lightwave in 1997, Stephen worked for Telecommunications magazine and the Journal of Electronic Defense.
Stephen has moderated panels at numerous events, including the Optica Executive Forum, ECOC, and SCTE Cable-Tec Expo. He also is program director for the Lightwave Innovation Reviews and the Diamond Technology Reviews.
He has written numerous articles in all aspects of optical communications and fiber-optic networks, including fiber to the home (FTTH), PON, optical components, DWDM, fiber cables, packet optical transport, optical transceivers, lasers, fiber optic testing, and more.
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