LightCounting predicts sales of Ethernet optical transceivers will see sharp increase in 2024

LightCounting’s “March 2024 Ethernet Optics” report predicts that Ethernet optical transceiver sales will see a 40% increase in 2024. The report analyzes and forecasts sales of more than 50 product categories of transceivers in the cloud data center, enterprise, and Telecom network market segments.

“We expected sales of Ethernet optical transceivers to decline by 5-10% in 2023,” LightCounting said in a press release, “but surging demand from Google and Nvidia kept the market growing, albeit at single digits. We have also sharply increased our forecast for sales of 400G/800G transceivers in the previous edition of this report, and we increased it a bit more in this one. We now expect 40% growth in 2024, more than 20% in 2025, and double-digit growth in 2026-2027.”

The company reports that its model shows that growth will likely decline to single-digit growth rates in 2028-2029, but based on historical market shifts, there is also potential for a sharp drop-off and then recovery.

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