100 Gigabit Ethernet optical transceiver market set for growth says Infonetics

Globally, 10G, 40G, and 100G optical transceiver revenues totaled $1.9 billion in 2013, up 18% from 2012, and are expected to grow a further 10% to reach $2.1 billion for full-year 2014, according to the latest report from Infonetics Research.

In the first half of 2014 (1H14), 10G, 40G and 100G transceiver revenues grew 11% from the same period a year ago, according to the report. This increase is due almost entirely to the increase in shipments of 100G WDM and 40G QSFP+ modules, the market research firm says. However, the long-anticipated ramp of 100 Gigabit Ethernet (100GbE) optical modules may be at hand.

"Major growth in the data center for 100 Gigabit Ethernet is on the horizon due to new silicon entering the market and lower-cost QSFP28 optics, including SR4 and much cheaper 2-km LR4 optics," said Andrew Schmitt, principal analyst for carrier transport networking at Infonetics Research. "Interest in 25GbE is also building momentum for a jump in these formats.

"In the telecom world, the market for 100G coherent equipment is controlled by five vendors – Alcatel-Lucent, Ciena, Cisco, Huawei, and Infinera – who are vertically integrated, and this is preventing an incursion by standalone component vendors," he added. Infonetics forecasts the coherent WDM market to double in 2014.

Meanwhile, volumes in the metro 100G market are expected to ramp in a year and, according to service providers, this will be led by data center and Internet content providers, Schmitt notes.

Interest in 100G data center network optics is accelerating, but has yet to be turbocharged by widespread data center deployment in the way 40G QSFP optics have been.

Shipments of 40GbE QSFP optics in 1H14 were lower than anticipated due to softer demand from Internet content providers, whose needs remain unpredictable, the market research firm says. Even so, growth in 40G data center interfaces is now affecting 10G volumes, as QSFP+-based interfaces used for high-density 10G start encroaching; growth in the 10G datacom segment is expected to slow down as a result starting this year, the firm suggests.

Infonetics' "10G/40G/100G Optical Transceivers" report tracks in granular detail 10G, 40G, and 100G optical transceivers sold into the optical transport, enterprise, data center, and carrier routing, and switching markets. It provides worldwide market size, forecasts through 2018, analysis, and trends for manufacturer revenue, units shipped, and ARPU. The report analyzes the optical transceiver market by module speed, reach, wavelength, and form factor. Unit volume forecasts are based on Infonetics' 1G/10G/40G/100G Networking Ports forecast, which aggregates trends from a wide range of enterprise, data center, optical transport, and carrier routing and switching equipment.

For more information on optical transceivers and suppliers, visit the Lightwave Buyer's Guide.