Frost & Sullivan: Substantial growth in Asia-Pac broadband subscribers
JULY 9, 2008 -- Asia-Pacific's broadband subscriber base is expected to reach 171 million by the end of 2008, representing a year-on-year growth of 31.5% and a household broadband penetration rate of only 19.7%, according to new analysis from Frost & Sullivan.
The surge in demand for broadband is driven by the growing popularity of video-on-demand, multi-player online games, video content sharing, and social networking services such as YouTube and Facebook, as well as the aggressive push by operators to offer innovative, bundled triple- and quadruple-play services.
Frost & Sullivan's "Asia Pacific broadband access technology and market comparison" reveals that the broadband subscriber base in the region--covering 13 Asia-Pacific countries--reached 129.7 million in 2007 and estimates this to reach 321.8 million by end-2013, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.9% (2008-2013).
The total broadband revenues in Asia-Pacific stood at $28.1 billion in 2007. This is projected to reach a market size of $42 billion by the end of 2013, growing at CAGR of 7.1% (2008-2013).
The total number of broadband subscribers grew 19.2% in 2007 and household penetration rate stood at 15.2%. By 2013, the household broadband penetration rate is forecasted to hit 33.7%, says Frost & Sullivan.
The top five Asia-Pac countries with the highest household broadband penetration rates in 2007 are South Korea (90.8%), Hong Kong (83.8%), Taiwan (76.8%), Singapore (73.1%), and Australia (63.2%). Japan has a 57.8% penetration rate, while the remaining seven markets have household broadband penetration rates of less than 50%. India and Indonesia registered the lowest penetration rates at 1.4% and 0.57% respectively.
"As fixed-line substitution and voice migration to mobile continues, broadband value-added services (VAS) become critical drivers for fixed-line service providers," notes Frost & Sullivan senior industry analyst Yong Lih Khoo. "Operators are as such aggressively promoting attractive bundled and discounted price plans, encouraging migration from narrowband, introducing local content and innovative services such as IPTV, as well as overall improving service levels and affordability," he reports.
The various government nationwide broadband master plan initiatives, particularly in the more developed nations, are also providing the impetus for the deployment of wider network infrastructure and coverage and the development of local broadband content and applications, thus driving broadband uptake.
In terms of broadband access technology, Khoo believes that a wide range of access technologies--fiber-to-the-home (FTTH), fiber-to-the-node (TTN), fiber-to-the-building (FTTB), digital subscriber line (DSL), WiMAX, and other wireless technologies--would continue to co-exist depending on the strategic outlook of the operators, existing infrastructure, and price points in a given country.
"FTTx in its various forms-- FTTH, FTTB, FTTN--would play a significant role in the next three to four years due to its potential of providing greater bandwidth to the premise, compared to copper wires," Khoo explains. "Some countries like Hong Kong are already providing speeds up to 1Gbit/sec, while other countries like Singapore are following suit."
"Deploying fiber as close to the home as possible enables operators to be future-ready for the bandwidth explosion that new services like multi-screen IPTV with recording and the concurrent high-speed Internet needs," he continues.
"Although service providers are rolling-out FTTx, the profitability of new services like IPTV remains questionable as these deployments would typically have a long payback period," Khoo adds, noting that in a credit crunch environment, most operators are likely to be cautious before deploying full-fledged FTTH, although it is a future-proof technology.
"Hence, FTTN would still be a more preferred option for low- to medium-density geographies like Australia and Malaysia," he contends.
In most of the developing markets however, Khoo believes that basic DSL-based services would continue to drive the bulk of deployments but is expected to face some competition from the various forms of wireless broadband technologies.
Visit Frost & Sullivan
Find more FTTx news at Lightwave's FTTx Resource Center.