Infonetics: PON market up 25% in 3Q08

Dec. 22, 2008
DECEMBER 22, 2008 � "We believe FTTH and FTTB deployments will be largely unaffected by the economic slowdown, as operators who have committed to these deployments . . . will stick with those plans because fiber-based access is such an important strategic opportunity for them," reports Jeff Heynen, directing analyst for broadband and video at Infonetics Research.

DECEMBER 22, 2008 -- The worldwide PON OLT and ONT equipment market grew 25% to $568 million in 3Q08, reflecting the strong growth of GPON network build outs in North America and EMEA, the continued growth of EPON subscribers in Japan and Korea, and the phenomenal growth of EPON infrastructure in China to support FTTB deployments, says market research firm Infonetics Research (search for Infonetics Research) in a new report.

According to the report, "PON and FTTH Equipment and Subscribers," the overall PON market is on track to finish 2008 up 46% over the previous year and to continue strong double-digit annual growth through 2011 as the shift from copper- to fiber-based broadband access drives growth in this market around the world.

"Based on our conversations with PON equipment vendors and network operators, we believe FTTH and FTTB deployments will be largely unaffected by the economic slowdown, as operators who have committed to these deployments, including many of the world's largest operators, will stick with those plans because fiber-based access is such an important strategic opportunity for them," contends Jeff Heynen, directing analyst for broadband and video at Infonetics Research. "In fact, operators can now lay fiber at a lower cost than before and, in the case of Asia Pacific, government subsidization of nationwide fiber build out efforts provide even more incentive for operators to continue with their rollouts," he adds.

Other highlights from the report include the following:

• Due primarily to heavy increases in PON deployments in China, where the major operators are deploying EPON-based FTTB networks in major metro areas and will continue to do so through 2011, Infonetics has increased its long-term PON equipment forecast significantly.
• Quarter-over-quarter from 2Q08 to 3Q08, the EPON equipment segment is up 38%.
• Year-over-year from 3Q07 to 3Q08, the GPON segment is up 269%.
• It's a very tight race for overall PON vendor market share, with Mitsubishi and Alcatel-Lucent in the #1 and #2 spots for 3Q08 worldwide revenue, respectively.
• Alcatel-Lucent widens its lead in the fast growing GPON segment in 3Q08, now with close to half of all GPON revenue, largely due to its Verizon for FiOS deployments.
• Cisco and PacketFront continue running neck-and-neck in the Ethernet FTTH equipment market, separated by only one point in worldwide revenue share in 3Q08.
• Worldwide BPON, EPON, and GPON subscribers are forecast to top 46 million in 2011.


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