Fiber-optics use will increase moderately through 2001
The global consumption of fiber-optic cable will increase 19% over the next five years, from $6.3 billion in 1996 to $14.9 billion in 2001, according to a recent forecast by ElectroniCast Corp., San Mateo, CA. Fiber Optic Cable Global Market Forecast, (1996-2006), predicts that global cable consumption will grow from $6.3 billion in 1996 to $14.9 billion in 2001, then increase by 12% to 26.1 billion in 2006.
According to the study, telecommunications fiber-optic cable represented the largest share of total global fiber-optic cable consumption in 1996, with $4.8 billion, or 76%, of the $6.3 billion total. It is expected to retain its lead in 2001, representing 71% of the $15 billion in total purchased fiber. Private local-area and wide-area network fiber-optic cable consumption, particularly multimode cable, is expected to constitute 14% of all purchased optical fiber by 2001, as opposed to 11% in 1996.
Purchase of fiber-optic cable for cable-TV applications is expected to grow from 9% in 1996 to 11% by 2001. However, the report predicts slower growth between 2001 and 2006, as telephone companies expand into entertainment video provisioning either by buying cable-TV operations or by building their own networks.
The report also anticipates that fiber counts will increase as the traffic in telecommunications networks increases. Fiber counts are based primarily on the fiber-in-the-loop architecture chosen and the number of subscribers to be served, rather than on traffic.
According to Saba Hailu, a senior research analyst with ElectroniCast, "There will be some countervailing forces such as dense wavelength-division multiplexing, faster optoelectronics, and passive fiber-in-the-loop systems, but that will only slow the growth."
Local loop fiber count is expected to grow more rapidly, especially in advanced regions of the world, the report says.
The market forecast report is available for $8000. For more information, contact ElectroniCast at tel: (650) 343-1398, or fax: (650) 343-1698.u