Gallium-arsenide semiconductor market to soar
The worldwide market for gallium arsenide (GaAs), radio-frequency, and digital semiconductor devices is projected to grow 15% annually, from $1.3 billion in 1996 to about $2.2 billion in 2000, according to the "GaAs IC and fet Market Review and Forecast 1996-2000," published by Strategies Unlimited, a semiconductor market-research firm in Mountain View, CA.
Of the worldwide demand for these semiconductor devices, communications applications--such as wireless telephones and data and satellite communications--are expected to capture a 68% market share; cable-TV and satellite, 11%; computer networking, 9%; test and measurement equipment, 6%; and military and transportation, 6%.
The fast rise in data-communications speeds is forecast to push the demand for GaAs digital integrated circuits in gigabit communications networks from $115 million in 1996 to $327 million in 2000 at an annual growth rate of 30%.
North American companies were the leaders in GaAs device production for 1996, with 47% of shipment revenues, followed by Japan with 44%. The report costs $3950. For more information, call (415) 941-3438.
Residential and small businesses show steady telecommunications purchases
Residential and small business market expenditures for telecommunications products and services are expected to climb from $139 billion in 1996 to $198 billion in 2001, at an annual increase of about 7%, according to the "Residential and Small Business Telecom" study prepared by Insight Research Corp., a telecommunications market research and analysis company in Livingston, NJ.
The largest market segment--residential users--is gauged to rise at 8% annually but remain steady at about 60% market share, from $82 billion in 1996 to $121 billion in 2001, mainly in second-line services.
Small businesses with 100 or fewer employees accounted for $42.7 billion in sales during 1996 at a 31% market share. This market segment should expand to $51.7 billion in 2001 at a 26% market share.
Sales to one-person businesses, such as plumbers and electricians, are figured to grow at 11% annually but remain steady at an approximately 12% market share from $14 billion in 1996 to $25.5 billion in 2001. Sales are expected to include mostly cellular, data, and enhanced telecommunications services.
The study maintains that the growth of these markets is occurring despite the inefficient marketing efforts of the telephone companies. The report costs $3495. For more information, call (201) 605-1400.
Telecommunications access traffic market skyrockets at a 67.5% growth rate
According to the Business Communications Co.`s RG-197 study, "The Future for Telecommunications: Traffic Patterns," the amount of digital traffic on public and private telecommunications networks in the United States is expected to explode thirteenfold from a total of 31.6 petabits (1015) per day in 1996 to 417.1 petabits per day in 2006, representing an average annual growth rate of 67.5%.
The study says that in 1996, data traffic at 15.8 petabits per day consisted of file transfers, e-mail, cad/cam, mathematical calculations, and text interchanges. This traffic is forecast to grow at an annual growth rate of 90.5% to 397 petabits per day in 2001.
Video traffic, such as in video-on-demand, two-way video, multimedia, and video-telephone applications, is estimated to zoom from 38 terabits per day in 1996 to 817 tera bits per day in 2001 at an annual growth rate of 84.7%.
Voice traffic, including local and long- distance telephone transmissions, is predicted to increase from 14.9 petabits per day in 1996 to 18.3 petabits per day in 2001 at an annual growth rate of 4.2%.
Facsimile transmission growth is projected to be moderated by the proliferation of e-mail delivery systems. Still, fax traffic is anticipated to increase from 863 terabits per day in 1996 to 1060 terabits per day in 2001 at an annual growth rate of 4.2%. The report costs $2750. For more information, call (203) 853-4266.
Outside-plant fiber deployment to climb
The U.S. telecommunications outside-plant market share for fiber-optic products is appraised to jump from 45% in 1996 to 67% by the year 2000. On the other hand, the share for copper products is expected to decrease from 74% in 1991 to 33% in 2000, according to the report "Telecommunications Outside Plant Products--U.S. Markets, Customers, and Competitors: 1997-2000," published by World Information Technologies, Northport, NY.
Outside-plant products are used to carry telecommunications and data transmissions between telephone switches and from central offices to customer premises. The study provides information and analysis on copper and fiber-optic cables, cabinets, distribution terminals, remote terminals, optical network units, closures, and splicing systems, as well as market trends and supplier market shares.
According to the study, the demand for outside-plant fiber-optic products is expected to expand nearly 18% annually from 1996 to 2000. In contrast, the use of copper products is estimated to decrease 2% annually during the same period. The report costs $2400. For more information, call (516) 754-5700.
U.S. fiber-optic cable exports jump 142% in 1996
According to statistics released by the Telecommunications Industry Association (TIA), Arlington, VA, U.S. trade exports in telecommunications equipment increased 4.3% in 1996 to $16.96 billion, with the fiber-optic cable market segment showing the second-highest one-year gain of 142.5% (see Table 1). Export sales of fiber-optic cables expanded from $268.5 million in 1995 to $651.1 million in 1996.
The facsimile-machine segment attained the highest one-year change of 280.5%, with export sales of $88.4 million. In third place was the paging-alert-device segment with a 91.5% increase to export sales of $3.4 million.
In total 1996 export sales, television transmission and reception apparatus topped all market segments with $4.02 billion, followed by telephonic apparatus and parts at $3.83 billion and cellular telephones at $1.98 billion.
Within the United States, factory sales of telecommunications equipment totaled $63.7 billion, declared the tia. The U.S. market therefore achieved a 16% gain over the $55 billion in sales accumulated in 1995.
According to tia President Matthew J. Flanagan, "[The year] 1996 marked the third-straight year that U.S. factory sales of telecommunications equipment have seen double-digit growth. Coupled with the U.S. telecommunications industry`s trade surplus, these statistics show that the U.S. telecommunications industry remains one of the healthiest in the entire U.S. economy.
"With a continued and increasing impact expected from a deregulated U.S. telecommunications market created by the 1996 Telecommunications Act, as well as the World Trade Organization`s (wto) market-opening Information Technology Agreement, 1997 should be another banner year for the industry. Complemented by the wto`s Telecommunications Services Agreement, which is scheduled to be implemented in January 1998, pro spects for the rest of the decade are definitely strong," added Flanagan.
Multimode fiber-optic component market to undergo double-digit growth
The U.S. market for multimode fiber-optic components, such as cables, transceivers, and connectors, in premises data-communications networks totaled $700 million in 1996. This multimode market includes sales of plenum, riser, and general-purpose multimode fiber-optic cables; short- and long-wavelength transmitters and receivers; and connectors. From 1996 to 2001, it is predicted to rise at a compound annual growth rate of 20% and reach $1.45 billion.
According to the study, "Multimode Components Markets for Data Communications in U.S. Premises Networks: 1994-2001," from Kessler Marketing Intelligence Corp., a Newport, RI-based market-research firm, data communications accounts for 90% of the multimode components used annually in the United States.
Building backbone segments are projected to consume more than 50% of the multimode cable installed in U.S. premises network markets for each year through 2001. By then, almost 2 million fiber-km of multimode cable is expected to be installed in U.S. computer networks, at a value of $809 million; multimode transceivers should become a $387 million market; and multimode connector sales should reach $297 million. The report costs $8450. For more information, call (401) 849-6771.