Broadband gear sales wave should continue through 2027: Dell’Oro

A new report from Dell’Oro Group suggests that the rising tide of government funding and increased service provider competition should float almost all broadband equipment boats through 2027. The market research firm states in its Broadband Access & Home Networking 5-Year January 2023 Forecast Report that the next five years should be kind to makers of PON equipment, cable broadband access equipment, and fixed wireless CPE, interest in which will all increase from 2022 to 2027.

"Service providers around the world continue to transition their broadband networks to fiber and retire their existing copper and DSL networks," said Jeff Heynen, vice president at Dell’Oro Group and its lead analyst for the broadband space. "With markets expected to become more competitive, broadband providers will have to continue spending in order to differentiate their services not only by increasing advertised speeds, but also improving latency and expanding managed WiFi services."

As has been the case for the last few years, PON equipment sales will lead the way, growing from $11.0 billion in 2022 to $13.2 billion in 2027. Deployments of XGS-PON in North America, EMEA, and CALA should prove particularly strong, according to the report. The forecast period should see growing 25G and early 50G PON rollouts as well, according to Dell’Oro.

Meanwhile, cable operators have launched HFC network upgrades with an eye toward DOCSIS 4.0 and Distributed Access Architectures. Dell’Oro expects revenue for cable distributed access equipment (virtual CCAP, Remote PHY devices, Remote MACPHY devices, and remote OLTs) to reach $1.5 billion by 2027.

Meanwhile, sales of fixed wireless CPE to service providers of all stripes will outstrip these HFC expenditures, in Dell’Oro’s estimation. Revenues from fixed wireless CPE should reach $2.2 billion by 2027, led by shipments of 5G sub-6-GHz and 5G millimeter-wave units.

Dell’Oro’s Broadband Access & Home Networking 5-Year Forecast Report provides an overview of the broadband access market with tables covering manufacturers’ revenue, average selling prices, and port/unit shipments for PON, cable, fixed wireless, and DSL equipment. Covered equipment includes Converged Cable Access Platforms (CCAP); Distributed Access Architectures (DAA); DSL access multiplexers (DSLAMs); PON optical line terminals (OLTs); customer premises equipment (CPE) for cable, DSL, PON, and fixed wireless; along with residential WLAN equipment, including WiFi 6E and WiFi 7 gateways and routers.

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