Dell’Oro sees more upside in latest five-year broadband equipment forecast

With broadband subscriber additions growing at a furious pace around the world, Dell’Oro Group increased its expected CAGR from the 0% it expected this past January to 3% for global sales of broadband access equipment and CPE from 2020 to 2025.

Pointing to the Delta variant of COVID-19 as a catalyst for limiting employees’ return to offices and extended hybrid learning environments for students, broadband penetration rates and the total addressable market for broadband service providers have significantly increased over the last year, says Dell’Oro.

“The combination of continued residential subscriber growth and increased capacity utilization rates noted by global broadband providers will more than offset the negative impacts of component shortages and labor limitations,” commented Jeff Heynen, head of Dell’Oro’s Broadband Access and Home Networking market research program, in a blog post. “The spending slump we had expected to see in 2021 after the increased investment levels of 2020 is not going to materialize. In fact, spending will continue to grow this year as operators deal with continued subscribers additions, as well as competitors increasing their investments in fiber, HFC, and fixed wireless networks.”

PON systems sales will lead the way, with the five-year CAGR forecast for PON gear increased again to 5% from 3% in January. Additionally, after two years of under-investment in infrastructure, the overall cable infrastructure market is expected to enjoy an increase in revenue throughout the forecast period, as mid- and high-split projects in North America and Western Europe are accelerated to increase upstream capacity.

Dell’Oro’s Broadband Access and Home Networking 5-Year Forecast Report provides an overview of the broadband access market with tables covering manufacturers’ revenue, average selling prices, and port/unit shipments for cable, DSL, and PON equipment. Covered equipment includes Converged Cable Access Platforms (CCAP), Distributed Access Architectures (DAA), DSL Access Multiplexers (DSLAMs), PON Optical Line Terminals (OLTs), Customer Premises Equipment ([CPE] for Cable, DSL, and PON), along with SOHO WLAN Equipment, including Mesh Routers.

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