Last month, LightCounting released an updated report on the Ethernet optical transceivers market, updating its expected growth forecast.
The group reported that, based on H1 2024 sales data and supplier outlook, it expects the global Ethernet transceiver market to see 57% growth in 2024, up from its earlier prediction of 40% growth. In the new forecast, LightCounting predicts sales in the market to peak in 2025, with 62% growth, before potentially declining to 20% growth in 2026.
“The timing of such a decline is unpredictable,” LightCounting reported in a newsletter. “All we know is, it will happen at some point. Our model suggests a soft landing with moderation of growth in 2026 and 10% growth rates in 2027-2028, but it is more likely that we will see another sharp drop followed by a recovery, conforming to the rocky history of the past 15 years.”
According to LightCounting, potential growth hindrances include reduced purchases by Nvidia or cloud companies, which it reports can clog the supply chain with excess inventory buildup. In a July newsletter, LightCounting reported that more companies may start to bypass Nvidia for purchases of optical transceivers in the future, reducing the company’s market contribution.
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Hayden Beeson
Hayden Beeson is a writer and editor with over seven years of experience in a variety of industries. Prior to joining Lightwave and Broadband Technology Report, he was the associate editor of Architectural SSL and LEDs Magazine.