18 August 2003 San Mateo, CA Lightwave--ElectroniCast forecasts a minor improvement of global shipment value of optoelectronic application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) in 2003, with a return to substantial growth in 2004-2007.
After a dramatic rise in the value of global optoelectronic ASIC shipments during 1998-2000, shipments dropped rapidly through 2001 until the first half of 2002, leveling over the last half of 2002. ElectroniCast forecasts minor improvement of global shipment value in 2003, with a return to substantial growth 2004-2007. This dramatic cycle has three significant elements: consumption, price trends, and inventory levels.
"These cycles were most severe in the North American market, moderate in Europe, and had little impact in Asia/Pacific rim," said Jeff D. Montgomery, founder and chairman of ElectroniCast. "The Asia/Pacific rim impact was moderated by the strong growth (though from a small base) of 1999-2003 consumption in China, plus the aggressive support of fiber-to-the-home deployment by the Japanese government," Montgomery said.
Asia/Pacific rim gaining market share
The consumption of optoelectronic ASICs by Asia/Pacific rim fiber-optic component vendors (including China) is forecasted to expand from 18% to a 24% share of global consumption during 2000-2007, as detailed in the Table above.
ASICs are special-purpose integrated circuits, designed to provide the signal processing uniquely required for fiber transport. Amplifiers, drivers, multiplexers/demultiplexers, and clock generation and recovery devices have dominated the early consumption of opto ASICs. However, faster future growth will be achieved by the specialty optoelectronic ASICs.
The intelligence which is to be transported first appears in the network in the electronic realm; either digital or analog (voice) format. For lightwave transport, the electronic signals must be translated to lightwave signals, and back to electronics at the other end of the link. This is the main function of optoelectronic ASICs, as illustrated in the figure. Driver and amplifier ASICs lead optoelectronic ASIC consumption in quantity and value, but there are numerous other opto AISCs used in many systems.
ElectroniCast's "Optoelectronic ASICs Forecast Report" is a 2000-2002 analysis and 2002-2007 forecast of market, application, technology, and competition trends of optoelectronic ASICs. The forecast is segmented by ASIC function, data rate, ASIC material, and regional consumption. Trends analyzed include merchant market versus captive market, packaging, integrated versus contracted, design/FAB/package, and competitive evolution.