Demand for 100G and greater coherent wavelengths to drive optical transport market to $15B: Dell'Oro

The Dell'Oro Group stated in its recently released "Optical Transport 5-Year Forecast Report" that the total optical transport equipment market, including WDM, multiservice multiplexers, and optical switches, will reach $15 billion by 2021. WDM revenue alone is forecasted to reach $14 billion by 2021, driven by the growing demand for 100 Gbps-plus coherent wavelengths.

"Demand for coherent wavelengths running at speeds of 100 Gbps and higher are expected to grow at a solid pace for the next five years," said Jimmy Yu, Dell'Oro group vice president. "Specifically, we predict a large ramp in demand for 200-Gbps coherent wavelengths, and forecast shipments of these line cards to grow at an 85% compounded annual growth rate."

In May the Dell'Oro Group reported that WDM equipment sales should finish 2017 up 8% to reach $12 billion (see "WDM demand remains in growth mode in 2017: Dell'Oro"). According to the "Optical Transport 5-Year Forecast Report," demand for WDM metro equipment is expected to surpass that of DWDM long haul for the next five years. On an average annual basis, WDM metro revenue's growth rate will be nearly 3X higher than that of DWDM long-haul revenue's growth rate.

Coherent wavelengths of 100 Gbps and higher will account for approximately 90% of the WDM equipment market revenue by 2021. Dell'Oro forecasts that enterprise direct purchasing for data center interconnect (DCI) should also influence the WDM market, and DCI using WDM equipment will be a $2.4 billion market by 2021.

The Dell'Oro Group's "Optical Transport 5-Year Forecast Report" provides an overview of the optical transport industry with tables covering manufacturers' revenue, average selling prices, unit shipments, tributary/line or wavelength shipments (by speeds up to >100 Gbps). It also tracks DWDM long haul terrestrial, WDM metro, multiservice multiplexers, and optical switch equipment.

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