LightCounting: 2012 'reasonably good' for optical transceiver vendors

Despite what you may glean from earnings statements, this year hasn’t been so bad for optical transceiver sales, asserts LightCounting in a note heralding its upcoming Market Forecast Database for 2013-2017. Transceiver sales revenues will have risen 6% year-on-year by the time 2012 comes to a close, while unit volumes will have climbed 20%, the market research and analysis firm states. Considering the pressures their clients and service providers have faced this year, “manufacturers of optical components and modules had a reasonably good year in 2012,” LightCounting believes.

Total transceiver revenues for 2012 should come in at more than $3 billion in 2012, LightCounting predicts. That figure will grow to $5 billion by 2017, in the company’s estimation.

Transceivers for DWDM and Ethernet applications will have led the way this year. DWDM transceiver sales will have risen 10% in 2012, paced by rapid uptake in 100-Gbps ports. LightCounting expects DWDM optical transceiver sales to grow at a 14% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the next 5 years, which would put the niche at more than $1 billion by 2017.

Meanwhile, Ethernet transceiver sales will have jumped 20% this year, making it a greater than $1 billion market already. The spike was greater than expected, LightCounting reports. As was the case with the DWDM segment, high-speed devices – in this case both 40 Gigabit Ethernet and 100 Gigabit Ethernet – will have provided the main spark. Such optical transceivers will have seen sales double in 2012, LightCounting forecasts. That said, 10 Gigabit Ethernet modules will have represented the lion’s share of the market when this year ends, accounting for more than 50% of sales.

LightCounting says that 100 Gigabit Ethernet sales could exceed those of 10 Gigabit Ethernet devices by 2017 – provided transceiver developers succeed in creating and offering modules with smaller form factors and lower power consumption. Just what those modules will look like is something of a blur, LightCounting says. The firm notes that transceiver vendor roadmaps contain devices such as the CFP, CFP2, CFP4, and QSFP. Meanwhile, systems houses such as Cisco are creating their own 100 Gigabit Ethernet devices.

For more information on optical transceivers/transponders and suppliers, visit the Lightwave Buyer’s Guide.